Under Trade War Concerns, Aluminum Wheel Exports to the US and Mexico Increased Significantly in December [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, January 26, 2025:

Customs data shows that China exported 75,500 mt of aluminum alloy wheel hubs in December 2024, up 4% YoY and MoM.

By export destination, the top five target countries for aluminum wheel exports in December were the US, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and Thailand. The export volumes to these five countries accounted for 29%, 19%, 11%, 9%, and 5% of the total aluminum wheel exports, respectively. Compared to the previous period, the US regained the top position this month, with its share increasing by 2% to 29%, while Japan's share dropped from 24% to 19%. Due to market concerns that a new round of trade and tariff wars might erupt after Trump takes office in late January 2025, the US, Mexico, and Canada became key targets for "rush exports" in the aluminum wheel industry in December. Data shows that wheel exports to the US increased by 15% MoM, while exports to Mexico and Canada surged by 31% and 18% MoM, respectively. Meanwhile, the shares of Japan and South Korea declined.

Additionally, in December, Mexico replaced South Korea to become the third-largest export destination for aluminum wheels. SMM analysis suggests that most wheels exported to Mexico are assembled locally and then shipped to the US as complete vehicles. During the most recent tariff war, Mexico was among the first to be affected, directly leading to a sharp short-term increase in its demand for Chinese aluminum wheels. This is likely the main reason for the significant growth in Mexico's wheel export volume in December.

SMM believes that although aluminum wheel exports rebounded at the end of 2024, this was mainly driven by "rush exports" in anticipation of tariff hikes. It is worth noting that in recent years, the export volume of aluminum wheels to the top five target countries has consistently accounted for over 60% of the total export volume. In the past two months, the export volume to the top three target countries alone has reached 60%, highlighting China's over-reliance on certain countries for aluminum wheel exports. With the rise of trade protectionism and the implementation of a series of tariff policies, the overseas market outlook for aluminum wheels appears bleak. Although some companies have recognized the risks and started exploring other markets, shifting back to the domestic market, and establishing overseas factories, in the short term, aluminum wheel exports will still face challenges. It is expected that aluminum wheel export volumes may show an overall decline in H1 2025.

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